Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 9.828807e-05 0.000117 0.000137 0.000160 0.000184 0.000211 0.000241
2024-10-13 7.307087e-05 0.000097 0.000125 0.000158 0.000196 0.000238 0.000288
2024-10-20 5.769135e-05 0.000084 0.000115 0.000153 0.000199 0.000252 0.000314
2024-10-27 4.695959e-05 0.000075 0.000109 0.000154 0.000208 0.000272 0.000350
2024-11-03 3.625904e-05 0.000063 0.000099 0.000146 0.000206 0.000276 0.000365
2024-11-10 3.088546e-05 0.000059 0.000096 0.000148 0.000215 0.000296 0.000399
2024-11-17 2.462150e-05 0.000051 0.000090 0.000144 0.000216 0.000304 0.000417
2024-11-24 2.061133e-05 0.000047 0.000087 0.000145 0.000222 0.000319 0.000444
2024-12-01 1.695347e-05 0.000043 0.000083 0.000143 0.000226 0.000330 0.000467
2024-12-08 1.304136e-05 0.000037 0.000077 0.000139 0.000225 0.000335 0.000482
2024-12-15 1.012514e-05 0.000033 0.000072 0.000135 0.000225 0.000342 0.000498
2024-12-22 7.892855e-06 0.000029 0.000069 0.000133 0.000227 0.000350 0.000516
2024-12-29 6.240055e-06 0.000027 0.000067 0.000136 0.000237 0.000371 0.000554
2025-01-05 4.496295e-06 0.000024 0.000064 0.000136 0.000243 0.000387 0.000587
2025-01-12 2.756917e-06 0.000020 0.000059 0.000130 0.000241 0.000393 0.000604
2025-01-19 1.910986e-06 0.000018 0.000057 0.000131 0.000248 0.000411 0.000638
2025-01-26 8.799377e-07 0.000014 0.000051 0.000124 0.000243 0.000410 0.000647
2025-02-02 5.788010e-07 0.000013 0.000050 0.000126 0.000252 0.000430 0.000685
2025-02-09 2.178776e-07 0.000010 0.000046 0.000122 0.000251 0.000436 0.000702
2025-02-16 9.036223e-08 0.000009 0.000045 0.000123 0.000257 0.000452 0.000734
2025-02-23 1.735252e-08 0.000008 0.000042 0.000122 0.000260 0.000463 0.000759
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000006 0.000039 0.000118 0.000258 0.000467 0.000775
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000005 0.000036 0.000114 0.000258 0.000473 0.000792